The NASCAR Cup Series is at Bristol Motor Speedway Sunday for the 2023 Food City Dirt Race. Green flag is scheduled to drop shortly after 7 p.m. ET (FOX) from Bristol, Tenn. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the 2023 Food City Dirt Race odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.
Food City Dirt Race: What you need to know
- Richard Childress Racing’s Kyle Busch is the defending winner on the Bristol dirt track last April, posting an average speed of 34.973 mph in a race which featured 14 caution flags on 82 laps
- Team Penske’s Joey Logano posted the 1st win on the Bristol dirt on March 29, 2021, posting an average speed of 46.313 mph
- Logano has finished 1st and 3rd in his 2 starts on the dirt at Bristol, leading 61 laps after averaging a 10.0 Average-Start Position
- 23XI Racing driver Tyler Reddick has never won at the dirt track at BMS, but he has finished 2nd and 7th in his pair of Cup starts
- Joe Gibbs Racing driver Martin Truex Jr. has finished 19th and 21st in his 2 starts despite leading 126 laps in the 2 dirt races at Bristol, most among any active driver
- TrackHouse Racing driver Daniel Suarez has finished 4th and 12th in his 2 Cup starts on the dirt, leading 122 laps, 2nd-best to MTJ
- Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott (leg) remains sidelined, so Josh Berry will once again be behind the wheel of the No. 9 Chevrolet
Food City Dirt Race – Expert pick
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 a.m. ET.
TYLER REDDICK (+450) is the No. 2 chalk (behind Kyle Larson +400) this weekend, and for good reason. He has finished 2nd and 7th in his pair of Cup starts on the Bristol dirt, while leading a total of 99 laps. He has done that while averaging a starting spot of 15.0, too, moving up to an Average-Finish Position (AFP) of 4.5.
There’s much to like about the driver of the No. 45 Toyota, who is already in the playoffs thanks to his win at COTA.
Food City Dirt Race – Long shot
Looking a little further down the list, DANIEL SUAREZ (+4000) has finished well in his 2 starts on the BMS dirt, leading the 122 laps, while posting finishes of 4th and 12th. There’s just something that he really likes about racing on the dirt surface, moving up from an Average-Start Position of 19.5 to an AFP of 8.0. He’ll be on the move this weekend, and is a dark horse to snatch checkers Sunday night.
Food City Dirt Race prop picks
JOEY LOGANO – TOP 5 FINISH (+150)
It’s hard to believe that you can find plus-money odds for Logano to finish in the Top 5. He has finished 1st and 3rd in his 2 Bristol dirt Cup starts, moving up from an Average-Start Position of 10.0 to post a 2.0 AFP with 61 laps led. He is also best among all drivers with an Average Rating of 122.4. There is an outside chance he waves checkers again, and no one would be surprised.
KYLE BUSCH – TOP 5 FINISH (+180)
Another stunning number is seeing Busch’s Top 5 number, as you have a chance to nearly double up. Bristol is one of Busch’s best tracks overall, and he won on the dirt surface last time out, too.
He was just 17th in the 1st installment of this race in 2021, but it was a muddy mess. Busch acclimated nicely last season, and picked up the victory in the Coliseum. He is dangerous to win anytime he steps onto the track at Bristol, dirt, asphalt or otherwise.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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