We look to this Easter Sunday night (April 9th, 2023) as the Food City Dirt Race comes to us from Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, Tennessee. This is the eighth 2023 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score which has a scoring system where first nets 45 points, second is worth 42, third is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. Also, stage wins are worth one point apiece.
For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board’s Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let’s see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
Kyle Larson Less 60.5 Points.
The numbers come in not so good as this was our sore spot last week. All Kyle Larson did was win the race last week naturally. The Chevy driver bucked the odds and held off Josh Berry not once, but twice. Another high-point total this week has us hooked. Larson could not do it again. Could he?
Larson expects to lead some laps, but will it be enough? Better yet, can he win? Playing the percentages dictates no win and the hope for some unlucky break entices us to take a shot one more time this Easter Sunday.
Josh Berry Less 41.5 Points.
The choice is not easy here because Josh Berry is starting to figure things out. He finished second last week at Richmond (on a short track). It is a concern that Berry could have the late speed to improve in position enough to accumulate more points than expected this week.
He will not lead laps at Bristol. That seems a given. Starting outside the top 30 is less than optimal here. A race ultimately dominated by non-Hendrick drivers appears shocking but maybe will not be on a progressively dusty Sunday night. Take the less here.
Brad Keselowski MORE 45.5 Points.
This is the RFK Racing risk of risks. Brad Keselowski starts 33rd and consistency is on our side. Does Keselowski get close to the top 10? Now, the fun part is that Keselowski has finished 11th the past two times at Bristol Dirt. Utilizing that math and abacus, that does get us above 45.5 points by a decent margin.
The Ford keeps finding ways to surprise us. We got lucky with him last week as he finished just a whisker below his cutoff. Can Keselowski end on the positive side of the ledger this time? Let’s take that shot!
Martin Truex Jr. Less 43.5 Points.
It is unfortunate that Martin Truex Jr. just does not have the luck or race car to truly compete this year. Look at what happened in Richmond as the Toyota driver has just one top ten in seven races. 2023 has proven not to be kind to say the least. Worse, Truex Jr. looked outright slow last year finishing 21st.
That does not figure to end well on Sunday. However, it is fun to add a little intrigue and go under on this prop anyway despite Truex Jr. expected to try anything and everything for a top-15 result on Sunday.
Christopher Bell Less 47.5 Points.
This could prove to work once more on Sunday. The idea that Christopher Bell could go fewer than 47.5 points is not crazy. He starts fourth, which means the Joe Gibbs Racing driver can not move too much up the field. Bell has top-five potential here but pitfalls and bad luck could plague the No. 20 Toyota once more.
Now, the Toyotas look like good bets here that are not named Bell. Our idea is to play things safe and assume Bell slides back a little before rising, but not enough, at the end on Sunday night.
- Joey Logano MORE 47.5 Points
- Ryan Preece MORE 36.5 Points
- Denny Hamlin MORE 44.5 Points
- Kevin Harvick LESS 37.5 Points
NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks
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The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success
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